Oscars 2015: The predictions

Time for the annual ritual! Determining which films will take home some of those much craved statuettes is a hard job as ever, especially if you haven't yet seen most of these films (many titles still need to be released in the Netherlands). So I'll freely admit a lot of it is a simple guessing game, but I'd like to think some of my expansive knowledge of and keen insight into the motion picture phenomenon serves me right in getting at least a third of these right. And as always, some wishful thinking works its magic, too.

Best Film:
First Choice: Boyhood. Obviously.
Second choice: The Grand Budapest Hotel. I'm rooting for this one, but I doubt I'd get my way.


Best Actor:
First Choice: Eddie Redmayne. I have yet to see (this movie and) a review that's not raving about Redmayne's stellar performance. Redmayne is one of those talented kids who finally seems to make good on that promise.
Second choice: Michael Keaton. Quite a comeback performance.

Best Actress:
First Choice: Julianne Moore.
Second choice: Rosamund Pike.There's not so much Gone Girl among the nominations as there ought to be. This one should have to make up for it.

Best Supporting Actor: 
First Choice: J.K. Simmons. The performance among the nominess I've heard the most positive feedback about.
Second choice: Mark Ruffalo.Because it's high time.

Best Supporting Actress:
First Choice: Patricia Arquette.None of these nominees seem convincing. So I'll go with Arquette, because Boyhood seems the safest bet.
Second choice: Emma Stone.

Best Director:
First Choice: Richard Linklater. Unique movie, so unique directing.
Second choice: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu.

Best Screenplay:
First Choice: Birdman.
Second choice: Foxcatcher.

Best Adapted Screenplay:
First Choice: American Sniper.
Second choice: The Theory of Everything.

Best Animated Film:
First Choice: The Box Trolls. It better be... Laika is long overdue in the Oscar department. And none of the others show this level of craftsmanship, be they good movies all.
Second choice: The Tale of the Princess Kaguya.

Best Foreign Film:
First Choice: Leviathan. Seems like a perfect time to peeve the Russian establishment some more with the social critique this movie displays.
Second choice: Ida.

Best Cinematography:
First Choice: The Grand Budapest Hotel. Considering the love for cinematography put on display in TGBH, it would be odd if it didn't win.
Second choice: Mr. Turner.

Best Editing: 
First Choice: Boyhood. A project cut together from bits of footage spanning over a decade, that's gotta be a worth an editing award or two.
Second choice: The Grand Budapest Hotel.

Best Production Design:
First Choice: The Grand Budapest Hotel.
Second choice: Into the Woods.

Best Costume Design:
First Choice: The Grand Budapest Hotel.
Second choice: Into the Woods.

Best Hair and Make-up:
First Choice: The Grand Budapest Hotel.
Second choice: Guardians of the Galaxy.

Best Score:
First Choice: The Grand Budapest Hotel.
Second choice: The Imitation Game.

Best Song:
First Choice: Selma. Okay, so I haven't heard any of these songs except for Everything is Awesome, and that's definitely not gonna be it. It gets obnoxious fast.
Second choice: Begin Again.

Best Sound Mixing:
First Choice: Birdman.
Second choice: Whiplash.

Best Sound Editing: 
First Choice: The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies. Say what you will, the sounds wasn't at flaw here.
Second choice: Birdman.

Best Visual Effects:
First Choice: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes. It's high time this form of elaborate mo-cap and Andy Serkis' pioneering work on it got some major acknowledgment.
Second choice: Guardians of the Galaxy.

Best Documentary: 
First Choice: The Salt of the Earth.
Second choice: Virunga.

And there you have it. Time and Academy voting will tell whether I'm correct or incorrect in any or all of these.

Oscars 2014: the results

Well, the Academy has finally held its annual ritual, so let's see how many Oscar winners I guessed right. Or expertly deduced correctly, if you prefer.

Best Picture: correct! It seems the time was right for a movie directed by a coloured man to win in this category. This is the Age of Obama after all. Too bad he didn't also win Best Director, but let's not push things, right?
I have yet to see 12 Years a Slave.

Best Actor: incorrect. Matthew McConaughey seems to have been on a roll last year with Mud, The Wolf of Wall Street and the movie he won for, so he was really actively pushing for that Oscar, and successfully so it appears. Though I won't deny him his prize, I feel kinda sad for both Bruce Dern and Chiwetel.
Second choice: also incorrect.
I have yet to see Dallas Buyers Club.

Best Actress: correct! This one just seemed a given. Blanchett deserved a Best Lead win for a change, Best Supporting Actress is good, but just not as good. Woody Allen's recent sex scandal hasn't hurt Blanchett for starring in his film.

Best Supporting Actor: incorrect. I should have known the Academy wouldn't go for a first-time actor, no matter how impressive his performance. Jared Leto proved a more conservative winner, despite him playing a transsexual.
Second choice: also incorrect.

Best Supporting Actress: incorrect. Jennifer Lawrence got her spotlight moment last year and she tripped over her dress while walking the stairs... never again! Plus, 'twas all white folks winning acting awards so far, so this evens the score a little.
Second choice: correct.

Best Director: incorrect. Considering all the technical stuff, I didn't see this one coming. The Academy has a tendency to overlook such aspects of filmmaking when it comes to this particular category, in favor of more trite but true apporaches. No more it seems. Apparently all the technical stuff was just too groundbreaking to ignore for a change.
Second choice: also incorrect.

Best Original Screenplay: incorrect. Poor American Hustle got snubbed good! A story about man and his increasingly accepting mentality towards anthropomorphizing non-human machinery fit right in with appreciating Cuaron's technical stuff. The Academy has finally learned to embrace the digital age then.
Second choice: correct.
I have yet to see Her.

Best Adapted Screenplay: correct! There just had to be a few more wins for 12 Years a Slave to go with that Best Picture win. Right before Gravity took all the rest.

The Academy clearly didn't take a hint from Gravity's tag line.


Best Animated Feature: correct! When Disney gets good again, all other animation is silenced. Like it or not. Let it go.

Best Foreign Film: correct! It just had to be, considering all the raving critical acclaim. Its competitors just didn't stand a chance.
I have yet to see La Grande Bellezza.

Best Cinematography: correct! Duh!

Best Editing: correct! See above.

Best Production Design: correct! Gatsby may not have felt like a great movie, but it sure looked like one.

Best Costume Design: correct! Same.

Best Make-Up: correct! The performances of McConaughey and Leto were undoubtedly stirred to great heights thanks to the way they looked.

Best Music: incorrect. Despite all the innovations, a grand picture still needs a solid soundtrack. Gravity got one.
Second choice: also incorrect.

Best Song: correct! The Academy, too, let it go. Good for them!

Best Sound Mixing: correct! It didn't matter that in space, nobody can hear you scream. For your information.

Best Sound Editing: correct! *insert second joke about the uneasy relationship between space and sound here*

Best Visual Effects: correct! The most obvious winner of the bunch, courtesy of the year's most jaw-dropping sights.

Best Documentary: incorrect. This unexpected pick is the one I take umbrage with the most. There's this hugely unsettling, daringly executed, effectively engaging shock doc about Indonesian genocide, and the Academy opts for a bunch of singing people instead. I'd say they 'let it go' a little too much in this case.
Second choice: also incorrect.

Correct: 14
Second choice: 5-2.
Incorrect: 7

Last year's results: 6 correct, 5 second choices correct and 9 blatantly wrong. There's some personal improvement there!
Most of the choices in the "lesser" categories were just glaringly obvious this year. It was an easy year in that regard. However, the 86th Academy Awards ceremony just proved once again how fickle Academy members can be when it comes to the acting categories. And also just how much the Academy likes to compromise. Then again, American Hustle received 10 nominations and ended up completely empty handed... Maybe because we once again didn't see Jennifer Lawrence's boobs? Oh well, let it go.

Oscars 2014: My list of predictions

The long and dreary road to this year's Oscars has been put into motion, and no doubt people will want to know what I expect this year's winners to be. Not that I tend to care all that much about the Acadamy Awards or the whole dull press circus in the first few months of the year that accompanies it. It's just one big ritual going through all the usual motions. I much prefer to focus on the quality of these films on their own merits, without the huge buzz that surrounds them. Nevertheless, here's my list of guesses (which honestly is what they are, since you can analyze all you want but the Academy still has a habit of surprising you in the choices it makes, and often not pleasantly). I am not ashamed to say that in many cases I just go with what my gut tells me, something most critics are not prepared to admit.

Best Picture:

First choice: A tough one, as always. I can tell you which movies it won't be for sure, but as to the winner, for me it's a toss-up - as these events usually revolve around two very promising films with the results being about even, just as with the recent Golden Globes - between 12 Years a Slave, American Hustle, while possibly The Wolf of Wall Street has a shot as well. For now, my money is on 12 Years a Slave, which by itself must make up for the lack of other "black" pictures in these nominations, like The Butler and Fruitvale Station, which were lobbying for an award but didn't get very far apparently.
Second Choice: American Hustle.

Best Actor:

First Choice: Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave. Same reason as above really. Plus, Chiwetel is a damn fine actor and though a first time Oscar nominee, he has already five Golden Globe nominations on his resumé. It's about time he won something.
Second choice: Bruce Dern for Nebraska.

Best Actress:

First Choice: Cate Blanchett for Blue Jasmine. An Oscar favorite that really needs a Lead Actress win, as opposed to a Supporting Actress take a decade ago. All the other female performances are impeccable, but this one just stands out supremely.
Second choice: Any Adams for American Hustle.

Best Supporting Actor:

First Choice: Barkhad Abdi for Captain Phillips. A stellar performance from a first time actor, holding his own opposite a veteran like Tom Hanks. You don't see that every day.
Second choice: Michael Fassbender for 12 Years a Slave.

Best Supporting Actress:

First Choice: No truly safe bets here, so I'll go with Jennifer Lawrence, since everybody likes her and so do I. Yes, that's also how this game sometimes works.
Second choice: Lupita Nyong'o for 12 Years a Slave. Same reason as Barkhad Abdi, except she has done slightly more.

Best Director:

First Choice: Steve McQueen for 12 Years a Slave. Again, same reason as why 12 Years a Slave is on this list of mine most of the times (though also because I haven't yet seen it so I can't underscore my argument in more detail). A black director winning an Oscar, doesn't happen often enough. Call me a racist if you must, but remember the b(l)acklash not so long ago when there weren't so many coloured people even nominated despite their considerable contribution to otherwise hugely nominated movies. Yes, they can!
Second choice: Martin Scorsese for The Wolf of Wall Street. Because it's about friggin' time this man took home another statue, considering how often he gets nominated but leaves empty handed.

Best Original Screenplay:

First Choice: American Hustle.
Second choice: Her.

Best Adapted Screenplay:

First Choice: 12 Years a Slave.
Second choice: The Wolf of Wall Street.

Best Animated Feature:

First Choice: Frozen. Apart from The Wind Rises, the other nominess are nothing remarkable (and poor Pixar simply got ignored this year, which was a long time coming really). However, that film seems too controversial, plus it's foreign material too. Frozen is a safer bet, as it carries all the good traits of a typical Disney movie, but shows the Mouse House is finally flowing with the times a little.
Second choice: The Wind Rises.

Best Foreign Film:

First Choice: La Grande Bellezza. This year's smash hit in arthouse theaters.
Second choice: Jagten. Better late than never, but not in time for a win. This movie is like 18 months old by now!

Best Cinematography:

First Choice: Gravity. The finest, most groundbreaking and impressive camera work I've seen in many years.
Second choice: Inside Llewyn Davis.

Best Editing:

First Choice: Gravity. Cuaron and his team once again make fabulous use of his trademark long takes, and the trick is you don't even notice the cutting.
Second choice: American Hustle.

Best Production Design:

First Choice: The Great Gatsby. Spectacularly lavish, the main reason to watch this film, which leaves something to be desired in terms of story and character. But it looks flawless.
Second choice: Gravity.

Best Costume Design:

First Choice: The Great Gatsby. Like I said, it all looks grand (characters included), it just doesn't feel it.
Second choice: American Hustle.

Best Make-up:

First Choice: already an uproar has commenced due to American Hustle being wrongfully snubbed in this category. Dallas Buyer's Club therefore seems the most eligible choice left.
Second choice: The Lone Ranger.

Best Music:

First Choice: Her. It needs to win something after all.
Second choice: The Book Thief. There's scoring, and there's John Williams.

Best Song:

First Choice: Frozen. Let it go, Academy! Let it gooooohooo!!
Second choice: Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom.

Best Sound Mixing:

First Choice: Gravity.
Second choice: The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug.

Best Sound Editing:

First Choice: Gravity.
Second choice: All is Lost.

Best Visual Effects:

First Choice: Gravity. I rarely experienced a movie that deserved this honour so badly. If Gravity loses, I call shenanigans on the Academy! Wouldn't be the first time though.
Second choice: The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug. The dragon looked badass, though I admit some other things in the film didn't appear nearly as stunning.

Best Documentary:

First Choice: The Act of Killing. Very disturbing but equally intriguing. May not be the Academy's cup of tea though.
Second choice: Dirty wars.

The first week of March will tell me how wrong, or maybe how right for a change, I just happen to be.