Oscars 2014: My list of predictions

The long and dreary road to this year's Oscars has been put into motion, and no doubt people will want to know what I expect this year's winners to be. Not that I tend to care all that much about the Acadamy Awards or the whole dull press circus in the first few months of the year that accompanies it. It's just one big ritual going through all the usual motions. I much prefer to focus on the quality of these films on their own merits, without the huge buzz that surrounds them. Nevertheless, here's my list of guesses (which honestly is what they are, since you can analyze all you want but the Academy still has a habit of surprising you in the choices it makes, and often not pleasantly). I am not ashamed to say that in many cases I just go with what my gut tells me, something most critics are not prepared to admit.

Best Picture:

First choice: A tough one, as always. I can tell you which movies it won't be for sure, but as to the winner, for me it's a toss-up - as these events usually revolve around two very promising films with the results being about even, just as with the recent Golden Globes - between 12 Years a Slave, American Hustle, while possibly The Wolf of Wall Street has a shot as well. For now, my money is on 12 Years a Slave, which by itself must make up for the lack of other "black" pictures in these nominations, like The Butler and Fruitvale Station, which were lobbying for an award but didn't get very far apparently.
Second Choice: American Hustle.

Best Actor:

First Choice: Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave. Same reason as above really. Plus, Chiwetel is a damn fine actor and though a first time Oscar nominee, he has already five Golden Globe nominations on his resumé. It's about time he won something.
Second choice: Bruce Dern for Nebraska.

Best Actress:

First Choice: Cate Blanchett for Blue Jasmine. An Oscar favorite that really needs a Lead Actress win, as opposed to a Supporting Actress take a decade ago. All the other female performances are impeccable, but this one just stands out supremely.
Second choice: Any Adams for American Hustle.

Best Supporting Actor:

First Choice: Barkhad Abdi for Captain Phillips. A stellar performance from a first time actor, holding his own opposite a veteran like Tom Hanks. You don't see that every day.
Second choice: Michael Fassbender for 12 Years a Slave.

Best Supporting Actress:

First Choice: No truly safe bets here, so I'll go with Jennifer Lawrence, since everybody likes her and so do I. Yes, that's also how this game sometimes works.
Second choice: Lupita Nyong'o for 12 Years a Slave. Same reason as Barkhad Abdi, except she has done slightly more.

Best Director:

First Choice: Steve McQueen for 12 Years a Slave. Again, same reason as why 12 Years a Slave is on this list of mine most of the times (though also because I haven't yet seen it so I can't underscore my argument in more detail). A black director winning an Oscar, doesn't happen often enough. Call me a racist if you must, but remember the b(l)acklash not so long ago when there weren't so many coloured people even nominated despite their considerable contribution to otherwise hugely nominated movies. Yes, they can!
Second choice: Martin Scorsese for The Wolf of Wall Street. Because it's about friggin' time this man took home another statue, considering how often he gets nominated but leaves empty handed.

Best Original Screenplay:

First Choice: American Hustle.
Second choice: Her.

Best Adapted Screenplay:

First Choice: 12 Years a Slave.
Second choice: The Wolf of Wall Street.

Best Animated Feature:

First Choice: Frozen. Apart from The Wind Rises, the other nominess are nothing remarkable (and poor Pixar simply got ignored this year, which was a long time coming really). However, that film seems too controversial, plus it's foreign material too. Frozen is a safer bet, as it carries all the good traits of a typical Disney movie, but shows the Mouse House is finally flowing with the times a little.
Second choice: The Wind Rises.

Best Foreign Film:

First Choice: La Grande Bellezza. This year's smash hit in arthouse theaters.
Second choice: Jagten. Better late than never, but not in time for a win. This movie is like 18 months old by now!

Best Cinematography:

First Choice: Gravity. The finest, most groundbreaking and impressive camera work I've seen in many years.
Second choice: Inside Llewyn Davis.

Best Editing:

First Choice: Gravity. Cuaron and his team once again make fabulous use of his trademark long takes, and the trick is you don't even notice the cutting.
Second choice: American Hustle.

Best Production Design:

First Choice: The Great Gatsby. Spectacularly lavish, the main reason to watch this film, which leaves something to be desired in terms of story and character. But it looks flawless.
Second choice: Gravity.

Best Costume Design:

First Choice: The Great Gatsby. Like I said, it all looks grand (characters included), it just doesn't feel it.
Second choice: American Hustle.

Best Make-up:

First Choice: already an uproar has commenced due to American Hustle being wrongfully snubbed in this category. Dallas Buyer's Club therefore seems the most eligible choice left.
Second choice: The Lone Ranger.

Best Music:

First Choice: Her. It needs to win something after all.
Second choice: The Book Thief. There's scoring, and there's John Williams.

Best Song:

First Choice: Frozen. Let it go, Academy! Let it gooooohooo!!
Second choice: Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom.

Best Sound Mixing:

First Choice: Gravity.
Second choice: The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug.

Best Sound Editing:

First Choice: Gravity.
Second choice: All is Lost.

Best Visual Effects:

First Choice: Gravity. I rarely experienced a movie that deserved this honour so badly. If Gravity loses, I call shenanigans on the Academy! Wouldn't be the first time though.
Second choice: The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug. The dragon looked badass, though I admit some other things in the film didn't appear nearly as stunning.

Best Documentary:

First Choice: The Act of Killing. Very disturbing but equally intriguing. May not be the Academy's cup of tea though.
Second choice: Dirty wars.

The first week of March will tell me how wrong, or maybe how right for a change, I just happen to be.