Oscars 2016: The Predictions

It's late January, so it's time for another round of predicting who will and won't go home with one (or more) of them little gold statuettes. Based on uncanny prior experience deducting winners, in-depth knowledge of the Academy's politics and personal acquantaince with all its members, I should get a lot of these right. Too bad I have little of the above, I'm just a guy with a gut feeling and an opinion, coupled with above average knowledge of movies and stuff. So there's bound to be a few misses here, but then, the Academy sadly never asks what I think. 


Best Film:
First Choice: I wanna say Mad Max: Fury Road, since that's the film I thought best of all the movies nominated I've seen. Which is less than half of them, admittedly. Gimme a break, the other half hasn't even been released here yet! I plan on seeing the rest ASAP. That being the case, I have a hunch it's gonna be The Revenant.
Second choice: The Big Short. Because Inarritu already won Best Picture only last year, so it wouldn't be fair to the others. Mind you, a lot of black people will remind you fairness is not something the Academy takes into account...

Best Actor:
First Choice: Leonardo DiCaprio. Nominated six times before. So don't you think it's about time as much as 'about time' can get?
Second choice: Michael Fassbender. Even though he didn't look much like Steve Jobs physically, he certainly got the rest right to make for a memorable performance.
 
Best Actress:
First Choice: Cate Blanchett. Because, you know... Cate Blanchett!
Second choice: Brie Larson. For getting stuck in a room and acting her way out.

Best Supporting Actor: 
First Choice: Christian Bale. Another hunch, but I'm not that impressed by this batch of candidates.
Second choice: Mark Rylance. Such a sweet, mild mannered performance. For a spy hellbent on destroying the US of A and the assorted freedom that goes with it. But still we like him.

Best Supporting Actress:
First Choice: Rooney Mara. Because I like to think Cate Blanchett's talent is highly inspirational. Getting intimate with her increases the acting capabilities of others, perhaps? Not to say Mara was no good prior to meeting Cate. Far from it in fact.
Second choice: Rachel McAdams. Because I've seen the other options on the big screen and I can't pick.


Best Director:
First Choice: George Miller. Because I want him to win, not because I think he actually will. Anybody capable of crafting such an insanely fantastic world at his advanced age and getting embraced by audiences and critics alike deserves to win.
Second choice: Adam McKay. A more likely scenario.

Best Screenplay:
First Choice: Spotlight. Seems the least unlikely candidate.
Second choice: Inside Out. It's gonna win Best Animated Feature for sure, but it quite deserves this one as well.

Best Adapted Screenplay:
First Choice: The Big Short. Because it's so highly intelligent and complicated. Oh no, it isn't, that's just what Wall Street wants you to think so nobody asks them the hard questions and they keep getting away with the shit they pull. And that's exactly what this script makes painfully clear.
Second choice: The Martian. A hunch. And because science is fun again.

Best Animated Film:
First Choice: Inside Out. Duh.
Second choice: I wanna say Shaun the Sheep, because I almost cried, but reason makes me say Anomalisa. Because it's unlike most animated features getting this nomination. It's not for kids, for one thing. So that makes it a different thing which deserves a chance to shine. But Inside Out is gonna take its glory, make no mistake.

Best Foreign Film:
First Choice: Son of Saul (Saul Fia). No competition.
Second choice: El Abrazo de la Serpiente. Still, no competition though.

Best Cinematography:
First Choice: This one is really hard. All contenders have very bold, innovative cinematography.  Sicario and Mad Max: Fury Road sure impressed me, but I think it's gonna be The Hateful Eight.
Second choice: Sicario. Because it's kinda the underdog here, and everybody loves an underdog.
EDIT: Fuck that, it's gonna be The Revenant, too!

Best Editing: 
First Choice: Competition is not as strong here. The Revenant.
Second choice: Mad Max: Fury Road.

Best Production Design:
First Choice: Mad Max: Fury Road. If you've seen it, you know full well why. Crazy production design for an insane world.
Second choice: The Martian.

Best Costume Design:
First Choice: Cinderella. Lavish got a new dimension. In 3D.
Second choice: Mad Max: Fury Road. Again, crazy.

Best Hair and Make-up:
First Choice: Mad Max: Fury Road. It's becoming my mantra in the technical department, but I just have strong faith in it.
Second choice: The Revenant. That's that handsome Leonardo DiCaprio fella under all that mud and blood, you know?

Best Score:
First Choice: The Hateful Eight. Same reason as Leo: it's high time after six snubs. Plus, he has been a master at his work for decades and this score was just totally brilliant. More so than the movie itself in fact.
Second choice: Sicario. Because it scared me, which it was supposed to.

Best Song:
First Choice: Spectre. Because the writing's on the wall. I didn't much care for it at first to be honest, but it really grew on me.
Second choice: whatever. Youth.

Best Sound Mixing:
First Choice: Mad Max: Fury Road, same as before.
Second choice: Star Wars: The Force Awakens.

Best Sound Editing: 
First Choice: Star Wars: The Force Awakens actually. The soundscape of Star Wars is a universe on its own even now another has taken over, and at least one sound award should acknowledge that fact.
Second choice: Mad Max: Fury Road.

Best Visual Effects:
First Choice: Ex Machina. For being subtle and not drawing attention to itself, but still totally believable. For those who didn't know, Alicia Vikander doesn't actually look like that in real life, that's all VFX.
Second choice: Mad Max: Fury Road. Because of that whole Mad Max thing I got going here, in case you missed it.

Best Documentary: 
First Choice: The Look of Silence. Can't go wrong with Indonesian genocide. Part 2.
Second choice: Amy. Because it appeals to the masses more than Ukrain, Nina Simone or drug cartels.


Februay 28th will tell me how right, or rather, how wrong, I am. What a lovely day!